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Study: Electric Motorcycles To Grow To 55 Million By 2023

26
August
2014
  Posted at 02:00:00 PM
  File under  Statistics Electrical
  Author: Mike Werner
  Location: Normandy, France

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Electric motorcycles and scooters are here to stay if you read the reports. Despite very high acquisition costs, a more limited-but-growing appeal, ePTW (electric Powered Two Wheelers) will start reaching sales numbers that will interest more and more manufacturers and bikers.

According to Navigant Research Open Navigant Research link in a new window, by the year 2023, a total of 55 million ePTW will have been sold (18.7 million will have been reached in 2018 - source Open source link in a new window). The number sounds astounding, but that is the cumulative number since 2014. According to the research company, annual electric motorcycle sales will go from 1.2 million in 2014 to 1.4 million in 2023, and annual electric scooter sales will jump from the 4.1 million in 2014 to 4.6 million in 2023.

In other words, the progression is not exactly spectacular. The company expects that this year, a total of 5.7 million ePTW will have been sold. But if you look around you, you will not notice that many electric bikes (apart from in my garage...). That is because 98% of the electric PTWs are to be found in China! Compare that with the North American market, where in 2012 only 4,000 units were sold, while 2018 will see this multiplied by a factor of 10: 36,000 units (source Open source link in a new window). It's still a very small drop in a very vast ocean. China is leading the market by far.

The reason China is dominating the market is that 1) the country is log jammed with heavy traffic, making it impossible to drive anywhere in a car 2) pollution is rampant 3) incentives to buy electric motorcycles and scooters are sufficient to warrant buying one.

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The two main factors reducing the chance that a biker will buy an electric motorcycle or scooter are 1) range and 2) price. But battery technology is increasing at a dramatic rate now that several mainstream manufacturers have decided to have at least one EV in their product range. With the likes of Harley-Davidson and BMW now offering, or looking at offering ePTW, prices will start lowering and the use of batteries will improve.

5 years ago, electric motorcycles offered an effective range in the two digits. Today, with the likes of Brammo and Zero, we are now capable of riding into triple digits, and charging the batteries has been reduced as well. In 5 years time, batteries will last much longer, and charge must faster.

Via: Navigant Research <-- Via: BusinessWire



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